‘Paper Bear‘ Putin screwed up when he thought Ukraine would just rollover when he attacked them. Instead of rolling over, Ukraine has helped to expose just how weak Russia’s military is, and now Russia is in trouble on all fronts – the War Front, the Message Front, the Political Front, and the Economic Front.
- As the Russian invasion of Ukraine enters into its fifth month, a common narrative has emerged that the unity of the world in standing up to Russia has somehow devolved into a “war of economic attrition which is taking its toll on the west”, given the supposed “resilience” and even “prosperity” of the Russian economy. This is simply untrue – and a reflection of widely held but factually incorrect misunderstandings over how the Russian economy is actually holding up amidst the exodus of over 1,000 global companies and international sanctions.
A must read…if you’re looking for actual facts. More:
- Russia’s strategic positioning as a commodities exporter has irrevocably deteriorated, as it now deals from a position of weakness with the loss of its erstwhile main markets, and faces steep challenges executing a “pivot to Asia” with non-fungible exports such as piped gas
- Despite some lingering leakiness, Russian imports have largely collapsed, and the country faces stark challenges securing crucial inputs, parts, and technology from hesitant trade partners, leading to widespread supply shortages within its domestic economy
- Despite Putin’s delusions of self-sufficiency and import substitution, Russian domestic production has come to a complete standstill with no capacity to replace lost businesses, products and talent…
- As a result of the business retreat, Russia has lost companies representing ~40% of its GDP, reversing nearly all of three decades’ worth of foreign investment and buttressing unprecedented simultaneous capital and population flight in a mass exodus of Russia’s economic base
- Russian domestic financial markets, as an indicator of both present conditions and future outlook, are the worst performing markets in the entire world this year despite strict capital controls, and have priced in sustained, persistent weakness within the economy with liquidity and credit contracting…
Download the visual slide deck Here. That is a detailed graphical view of what the Russian people are facing because of ‘Paper Bear‘ Putin’s unprovoked *ATTACK* on the sovereign Ukraine nation. Examples:
Russia was exporting “83%” of its Natural Gas to Europe … Europe was only importing “46%” of its Natural Gas from Russia. Do the math…
Russia depended on Europe & Ukraine to make money on its Natural Gas exports, and then foolishly *ATTACKED* Ukraine. All those pipelines are now basically useless, and probably mostly useless in the future since it is doubtful that Europe will ever trust Russia again.
‘Paper Bear‘ Putin said Russia will simply “Pivot to the East” as their new source for exporting Natural Gas to; however, most all of Russia’s pipelines go to Europe, and only a fraction of those pipelines go East…oops!
Will also be posting this to my Big Brother Report blog…
Big Brother is WATCHING YOU – ‘There were five forms of governance that migrated from theory to reality in the 20th Century: Socialism, Communism, Fascism, Nazism and Progressivism. The common denominator among them was unprecedented control and regulation by the State over human activity. It is delusional to think that the Totalitarian impulse expired with the 20th Century.’ – E. Nuff Said